Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 83296.371153 87903.984683 92508.003874 97450.340002 102602.327435 107811.192958 113472.256101
2024-12-15 76335.642996 83440.627300 90736.003058 98776.403961 107378.693367 116295.692593 126227.043783
2024-12-22 70262.647634 78994.814892 88157.290601 98466.732437 109721.866143 121614.690495 135109.401079
2024-12-29 66820.791084 76894.543944 87654.766616 99968.042192 113632.106191 128293.759542 145178.117679
2025-01-05 63674.664156 74795.994338 86862.753839 100875.936955 116647.718915 133795.743957 153794.256929
2025-01-12 60474.426207 72391.215204 85507.755065 100945.196557 118543.003743 137904.117509 160739.104171
2025-01-19 57539.091106 70098.376934 84107.007822 100798.768447 120049.841857 141459.126616 166968.247451
2025-01-26 56105.997979 69428.363589 84464.074608 102575.077413 123677.638265 147367.132484 175843.484738
2025-02-02 54811.023694 68828.615277 84824.364124 104287.549415 127181.616122 153105.650881 184521.982583
2025-02-09 53117.122080 67665.128625 84445.473629 105064.465690 129540.922590 157488.202339 191620.448582
2025-02-16 51070.822378 65987.923932 83377.281671 104951.141725 130790.926224 160534.448274 197134.808897
2025-02-23 49500.479848 64818.574795 82853.829114 105430.959197 132697.977686 164320.330726 203503.760331
2025-03-02 47727.407463 63363.692855 81962.886704 105461.207512 134082.198661 167528.279023 209263.752360
2025-03-09 46722.977489 62823.847833 82156.842388 106789.054612 137023.917628 172601.122553 217279.424223
2025-03-16 44948.084289 61252.809844 81025.354271 106440.910244 137889.671433 175162.011895 222278.583924
2025-03-23 44228.386561 60985.392986 81483.313874 108034.784249 141119.820304 180575.931911 230737.451858
2025-03-30 43258.679940 60358.327148 81458.066551 109000.054012 143559.305925 185028.557690 238046.928654
2025-04-06 41932.406347 59223.913855 80751.511627 109073.558313 144864.503809 188081.309925 243649.288708
2025-04-13 40573.995425 58002.537375 79893.440082 108917.699094 145852.832777 190725.761660 248745.205429
2025-04-20 40191.667755 58049.384170 80648.087324 110807.703637 149413.702161 196558.771977 257800.688468
2025-04-27 39803.319831 58069.427675 81354.734643 112629.415520 152891.521888 202304.661114 266782.184101
2025-05-04 39014.225792 57524.651736 81303.744155 113455.772446 155094.560133 206463.417892 273807.119646
2025-05-11 37869.141723 56463.807013 80545.348953 113335.241333 156065.179777 209066.290751 278888.507540